North Korea will continue to rely on Chinese economic assistance, especially when to recover from the pandemic, and assume Chinese protection while advancing its nuclear program. As Kim and Xi put it, opposing imperialism and building socialism underpins the essence of the treaty renewal. View the discussion thread. Why China and North Korea decided to renew a year-old treaty.
Khang Vu. A second statue of Kim Jong-il was added after Related Content. As a national champion departs the scene, a China food fight looms. Show Comments View the discussion thread. Previous Article Economic diplomacy: Going for gold in 20 years and counting. You may also be interested in. The Interpreter 21 Dec Best wishes for the season from all of us here at The Interpreter. Apart from South Korea, the United States has no other treaty ally in mainland Asia that has been willing to host a persistent U.
President Donald Trump wins a second term in November, there is a high probability that he will enter into some type of a nuclear agreement with North Korea, given his bromance with Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.
He was the first U. Regardless of who wins the U. Japan and South Korea both will continue to ramp up defense spending and modernize their respective armed forces. This is one long-term driver that Kim will not be able to influence, unless he chooses to denuclearize, which is not going to happen. Worsening U. If Biden wins, the window for conducting good faith negotiations with the United States will be limited, since he will not coddle Kim as Trump has.
Moreover, as U. Although it is a major security threat, North Korea is an outlier. And as North Korea drifts closer to China, it is not yet clear how Beijing will respond to Pyongyang. Despite the fact that China supports denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula , it has never explicitly called on North Korea to denuclearize, and this policy is not likely to change. At the same time, Kim knows that as the U. Since both North Korea and China have reasons to draw closer, Beijing will not be able to decouple from Pyongyang even if North Korea conducts another nuclear test.
Many Asian countries no longer see the United States as a beacon of freedom and democracy, though perceptions will shift if Biden wins. Washington will be able to partially recover its loss in global standing if Biden becomes president. But it seems increasingly unlikely that the United States will be able to sustain its supremacy without help from key allies.
Various strategic concepts are being debated, such as an Asian variant of NATO, but it remains doubtful whether key Southeast and East Asian states will join such a grouping. The deteriorating U. The threat perception gap, different long-term objectives and increasing mutual suspicion between the two major powers continue to widen despite mutual interest in ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Both countries view the other as an obstacle to progress—China is seen as prioritizing DPRK regime security over the nuclear nonproliferation regime and nuclear threats, while the U. As the region waits to see if and when North Korea will reengage, the U. I regret that we have been unable to connect in person for more than a year, but as you know, the new U. As you know, Washington policymakers have become quite negative on prospects for U.
This is a difficult obstacle to overcome, although we are currently cooperating to try to resuscitate the Iran nuclear deal, so such cooperation is theoretically possible, even if difficult.
The most enduring complaint is that China prioritizes stability of the North Korean regime over the denuclearization process and thus the upholding of the nonproliferation regime. China is reluctant to apply sanctions pressure, for example, for fear of impending DPRK collapse. Whether limited vigilance at the border crossing or lack of enforcement on ship-to-ship transfers, it seems to many outsiders that Beijing is not serious about sanctions enforcement. Tensions and disagreements in this area are bound to dog any hoped-for cooperation, as Americans view Chinese sanctions enforcement as a litmus test of seriousness about contributing to collective denuclearization efforts.
Lastly, many in U. The Biden administration has demonstrated keen intent to work with its allies to solve problems, and while China has shown interest in being involved in future DPRK negotiations, the U.
Of course, China might have its own reservations at this point about the ability of the U. I believe the Biden administration will answer these concerns.
The question, as always, will be how to move the North Koreans, a prospect that seems as difficult as ever. China has also been frustrated with prospects for cooperation with the U.
China believes the U. Washington, on the contrary, believes Beijing is not willing to address the nuclear issue because it is using Pyongyang as leverage against America and its allies. China and the U. On the other hand, China is worried about the possibility of closer U. Both China and the U. There is no doubt that China takes a strong stance on this issue, as demonstrated by the four China-DPRK summits held since
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